The outlook for global container port throughput is gloomy...

Alphaliner has lowered its forecast for global container throughput growth this year from 3.6% to 2.5%. The consultant said that the weakness in the first quarter and the impact of the US-China trade war are gradually taking their toll.
According to the data of over 250 global ports surveyed by the consultant, the average growth rate in the first three months of this year was only 2.8% compared with the same period last year.
Alphaliner also pointed out that the growth rate was "unevenly distributed among regions". "Negative growth in freight volumes at several emerging ports has pulled down the global growth rate," Alphaliner said.
The performance of ports in the Middle East was the poorest, with their number shrinking by 10.1% compared to the first quarter of 2018.
The transaction volumes in Africa and Oceania decreased by 4.4% and 1.1% respectively, while the export volume of South African ports dropped sharply by 16%. The negative growth of ports such as Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Fremantle in Australia affected the throughput in Oceania.
However, in the Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific regions, the reports indicate growth rates of 3.5% and 4.8% respectively.
As for the trade war between the US and China, since May 15th, the US has raised the tariff rate on the 200 billion US dollars worth of goods imported from China from 10% to 25%, and then threatened to impose tariffs on approximately 325 billion US dollars worth of additional goods. China raised the tariff rate on some imported goods from the US starting from June 1st. Alphaliner predicts that the throughput will be further affected as a result.
Alphaliner stated: "The escalation of the trade war between China and the United States is expected to lower the growth rate of container volumes in both countries in the coming quarters." The consultancy pointed out that the spot price for the trans-Pacific route between Asia and the US West Coast has dropped by 15% in the past two weeks, and shipping alliance groups have announced two blank sailings next month, indicating a projected decline in sales.

(Source of the article: Shipping Online)